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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-07-27 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270833 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 FLOSSIE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL EYE A LITTLE BEFORE 0600 UTC...AND GLIMPSES OF THAT FEATURE HAVE BECOME APPARENT IN RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 60 KT. FLOSSIE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS HEADED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OR BEGIN TO WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FLOSSIE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1800 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.5N 137.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.1N 140.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 18.9N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.4N 146.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.7N 149.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 20.0N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 20.5N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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