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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-27 18:18:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271618 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013 CORRECTED FOR CPHC HEADER INFORMATION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT EARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR ALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE STORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17. THE STORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. FLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO. FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER HFOTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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