je.st
news
Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-07-25 10:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250838 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE LASTEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NUDGED UPWARD TO 2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED RELIABLE WINDS AROUND 35 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE. CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS THAT ARE COOLER THAN 26C ON FRIDAY. THESE LESS FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES GENERALLY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 15.5N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.9N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.4N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 17.3N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 18.0N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.6N 141.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.5N 146.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 21.0N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||