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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-07-25 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252041 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 200 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE APPEAR TO BE BETTER DEFINED...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NONETHELESS...1736 UTC ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. FLOSSIE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR MUCH MORE STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT A DAY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS IS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT BECAUSE FLOSSIE IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS A STRONG AND PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP FLOSSIE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLIGHT SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.3N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 18.5N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
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