je.st
news
Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-07-26 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260232 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013 FLOSSIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND IN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00 UTC WERE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A BLEND OF THE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHILE FLOSSIE MOVES OVER WATERS THAT ARE COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A DUE WEST PATH TODAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/15. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD AS FLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 15.1N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.4N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.0N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 16.5N 138.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 17.1N 141.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.0N 147.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||