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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-07-26 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260833 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS CONSOLIDATED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE MOST PROMINENT AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE ABOUT THE SAME. A RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT. FLOSSIE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO COOLER WATER...DRIER AIR...AND SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. FLOSSIE IS ON A WESTWARD COURSE WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 275/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE TIME FLOSSIE NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.4N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 15.8N 133.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 17.2N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 17.9N 143.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.6N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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