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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-07-26 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261431 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH FLOSSIE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW SOME INNER CORE FEATURES TRYING TO FORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 45 KT. FLOSSIE STILL HAS SOME CHANCE TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO AS FLOSSIE MOVES FARTHER INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. ASCAT AND TRMM DATA SHOW THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. FLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.5N 138.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.3N 141.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.5N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1200Z 20.5N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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