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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-07-26 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262031 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 FLOSSIE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BETTER DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES ON MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND AMSU ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE SHOULD COMMENCE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...NOW SHOW FLOSSIE DISSIPATING WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 120H DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW 285/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A FIRM RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST IN 24-48H AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...BUT IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 17.9N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 18.6N 143.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.1N 146.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 19.5N 158.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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