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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-07-27 04:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270233 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BROKEN CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS OVER 26C WATERS AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE LESS FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE FLOSSIE TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OR WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE LATER IN THE FORECAST... WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FLOSSIE REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE WEAKENING STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.0N 135.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.6N 138.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.5N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 19.8N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 20.0N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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