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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-14 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in organization and convective banding in association with Felicia. The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates. Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening, perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through 24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through much of the forecast period. Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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