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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-15 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150235 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt. Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low- to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26 deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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