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Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Discussion Number 15
2024-09-12 10:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120848 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Francine has continued to rapidly weaken overnight while moving inland across eastern Louisiana. The system is highly sheared due to its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. Francine is quickly losing tropical characteristics, and surface observations indicate the surface center is located south and west of the heaviest rainfall. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, continue over portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area. Earlier scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt offshore winds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The storm has slowed down a bit and is now moving northeastward at about 10 kt. Francine is expected to turn north-northeastward and northward today, bringing the center across central and northern Mississippi. Continued weakening is expected, and tropical storm conditions along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama are likely to subside this morning as the low weakens and moves further inland. Given its degraded satellite structure, Francine is likely to degenerate to a post-tropical low as early as this morning, with dissipation forecast to occur by 48 h. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the next several hours for portions of the eastern Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal portions of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where tropical storm conditions could continue for the next few hours. 3. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible today and tonight over portions of central and northern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 30.9N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Francine (AT1/AL062024)
2024-09-12 10:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Francine was located near 30.9, -90.1 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Francine Public Advisory Number 15
2024-09-12 10:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120847 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 90.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Grand Isle, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 90.1 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected during the next day or so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression this morning and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue in portions of the warning area for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics