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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-07-26 16:44:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261444 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Georgette continues to quickly weaken, with the associated convection decreasing significantly in both coverage and intensity since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt based on a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB. However, the latest estimates from objective techniques at CIMSS suggest this could be generous. Georgette should continue to weaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface temperatures of 23C-25C, and the intensity forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 hours. The system is subsequently expected to dissipate by 96 hours. The motion remains slow at 305/3. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough is moving westward to the north and northwest of Georgette. This feature has likely weakened the subtropical ridge and contributed to the current slow motion. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to build north of Georgette during the next 72 hours, which should steer the cyclone or its remnants northwestward and then westward during the next 72-96 hours. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just south of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.4N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.8N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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