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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-07-27 04:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Convective cloud tops continue to warm near Georgette, and there are no longer any pixels -50C or colder in infrared satellite imagery. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are now between 30 kt and 55 kt, so the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt on this advisory. Georgette will be moving through a dry environment and over sea surface temperatures between 23-25C during the next couple of days, which should cause further weakening. If deep convection does not redevelop, then Georgette will likely become post-tropical in the next 12-24 hours. The global models then indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough by day 3. Center fixes indicate that Georgette is moving again, and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt. A low- to mid-level trough extending north of Georgette toward the California coast appears to have been influencing the cyclone's recent motion. This feature is expected to run out ahead of Georgette during the next day or two, and a re-establishment of the subtropical ridge should cause the cyclone to turn west- northwestward and accelerate through 48 hours. The NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.8N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.4N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z 21.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 21.6N 135.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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