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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-07-22 16:56:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221456 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 The satellite presentation of the cyclone has improved during the past few hours, with an increase in deep convection in a developing CDO and a large but fractured convective band in the western semicircle. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from SAB. A 0931Z GPM pass showed that some inner-core structure has developed, but moderate easterly shear is forecast to persist for the next couple of days. This envirionment should allow for steady strengthening while the storm moves over SSTs above 28C. SSTs cool below 26C after 72 hours, which suggests slow weakening late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward given the initial intensity but keeps the same peak intensity. This forecast is above the intensity consensus and near the latest SHIPS and LGEM predictions through 5 days. The initial motion estimate is 295/11 and Georgette should be steered west-northwestward by the east Pacific subtropical ridge for the next 2 to 3 days. Later in the forecast period the ridge shifts westward, which should cause a decrease in forward speed and a bend in the track toward the northwest. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but is a little faster, and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. The formation of Georgette as the seventh named storm in the basin this month ties the July record for the most named storm formations, which was set in 1985. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.3N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 118.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.5N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 14.0N 122.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.5N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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