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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-22 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222035 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Georgette has continued to strengthen today. A small central dense overcast is present in geostationary imagery with a well-defined low-level eye seen in a 1415Z WindSat pass. A hint of an eye was also noted in earlier visible imagery. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5/55 kt and the UW-CIMSS ADT of T3.4/53 kt at 18Z. It appears that the shear has relaxed at least somewhat over the cyclone today, and the SSTs of over 28C should be conducive for at least steady intensification in the next 36 to 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast has again been adjusted upward and is above the intensity consensus and close to the LGEM model. Note that the HWRF shows more rapid intensification in the short range, which is possible. Later in the forecast period the SSTs gradually cool, which should result in steady weakening at days 3 through 5. The initial motion is now a little faster toward the west-northwest at 295/13. Georgette should continue on this heading for the next 48 hours while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the northeast. After that time an upper-level low will undercut the ridge northwest of the tropical cyclone, which should result in a slower motion toward the northwest at days 3 and 4, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest at day 5 as the ridge rebuilds. The new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but is again faster during the first 72 hours following the guidance trend. Late in the period the new NHC track is a little to the left of the previous one and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.8N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.4N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.0N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.0N 127.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 19.0N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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