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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-07-23 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 This evening's satellite presentation has revealed some deterioration of the cloud pattern. Georgette's earlier impressive, banding-eye feature is no longer present, and recent microwave images indicate a more sheared, tilted structure. Apparently, modest northeasterly shear has once again returned and has partially exposed the center of circulation to the east of the strongest convection. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory and is based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB. The large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model all show the shear lingering for the next 24 hours or so. Subsequently, only modest strengthening is reflected, but all the statistical-dynamical guidance show Georgette still becoming a hurricane in 12 hours. The intensity models indicate further strengthening through mid-period, then agree on a gradual weakening trend through day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario and is based on the combination of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the stronger HWRF hurricane model. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 290/11. A mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States should continue to steer Georgette in this general direction for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a retrograding upper-tropospheric trough, embedded in the deep-layer easterly flow south of the ridge axis, is expected to temporarily disrupt the steering flow just enough to cause Georgette to decrease in speed and turn toward the northwest. Late in the period, the ridge should reestablish north of the cyclone and turn Georgette back toward the west-northwest. The NHC forecast is quite similar to the last one, and closely follows the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.2N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.3N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 17.5N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 18.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 19.4N 131.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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