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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-07-23 10:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Georgette's convective canopy has expanded and become a little more symmetric over the past few hours. An 0515 UTC AMSU pass revealed a mid-level microwave eye, but this feature appeared to be displaced to the west of the low-level center by more than half a degree of longitude. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. SHIPS guidance indicates that a little more than 15 kt of easterly shear is still affecting Georgette. However, the shear is expected to gradually diminish, falling below 10 kt in 18-24 hours, and sea surface temperatures should remain higher than 26C for about the next 48 hours. Therefore, slow strengthening is anticipated at first, with a faster intensification rate likely once the shear has abated. Since little to no shear is expected in 36-48 hours, the NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance spectrum, closest to the HWRF model. After 48 hours, steady weakening is anticipated due to cooler SSTs, increasing shear, and a drier atmosphere. The low-level center has been tough to locate tonight, so an initial motion of 290/11 kt is maintained for continuity's sake. The strong mid-level ridge to the north of Georgette is expected to weaken and shift to a position between California and Hawaii during the next few days. Georgette should therefore turn northwestward and slow down after 36 hours. There is very little spread among the track guidance during the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast is nudged a little north and east of the previous forecast in deference to the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie on the right-hand side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.5N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.0N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.0N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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