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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-07-23 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Georgette's cloud pattern has transitioned to a CDO with a curved band in the western semicircle during the past few hours. A 0908Z AMSR2 pass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye feature, but this was displaced southwest of the low-level center due to about 10 kt of northeasterly shear. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still an opportunity for Georgette to strengthen, as the shear is expected to decrease below 10 kt by 12 hours while the cyclone will remain over SSTs above 26C until about 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the guidance in the first couple of days and is close to the HWRF model. After 48 hours, weakening is expected due to a combination of cooling SSTs, increasing shear and a drier more stable atmosphere. During this time, the new NHC forecast is lower, trending toward the latest LGEM output. With the help of the above-mentioned AMSR pass, the initial motion is estimated to be 290/11. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning, as Georgette will be steered by a strong mid-level ridge to the north that will weaken and shift westward during the next several days. This should result in a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 36 hours, followed by a northwestward motion at 48 and 72 hours with a decrease in forward speed. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected at days 4 and 5 as the ridge rebuilds to the north. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, but there is some cross-track spread between the HWRF and COAMPS-TC on the left side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the right side. The new NHC track is largely an update of the previous one with with a slight southward adjustment toward the latest multi-model consensus. This forecast is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.9N 121.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.4N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.3N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.2N 126.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.1N 127.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.2N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.0N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.0N 133.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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