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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-06 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Although Gabrielle was without organized deep convection for most of the past 24 hours, deep convection has quickly re-developed near and to the north of the center this morning. In addition, recent ASCAT data indicate that the winds have increased since last night, suggesting that tropical-cyclone intensification processes are ongoing. While normally we would wait a little longer to restart the cyclone, since the previous advisory and this one show the potential for significant strengthening, advisories are being re-initiated so that marine warnings that were already in place could remain. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt, in agreement with the ASCAT winds. The storm is moving faster to the northwest this morning, or 320/15. A large ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to build to the north, forcing the tropical cyclone to turn west- northwestward on Saturday. After that time, southwesterly flow ahead of Hurricane Dorian should turn Gabrielle quickly northward and northeastward by early next week. Model guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. Gabrielle is currently still experiencing strong southerly shear due to the winds around an upper-level low. However that low is forecast to drop southwestward, causing the storm to enter a low-shear region by tomorrow at the same time water temperatures rise to near 29C. This is a recipe for at least steady strengthening, and all of the models are much higher than the previous cycle. The new NHC prediction is increased at long-range as much as continuity allows and is still below many of the model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 27.3N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 28.9N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 30.7N 43.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 32.1N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 33.4N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 37.6N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 42.6N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 50.0N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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