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Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-07-27 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 582 WTPZ43 KNHC 271432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Northwesterly shear has disrupted the already poorly organized cloud pattern associated with Gilma. The center is now exposed and located on the northwestern edge of the convection, and T-numbers are only 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Earlier ASCAT data supported tropical storm strength, however, given that no new ASCAT information is available, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in this advisory. Gilma could maintain its current strength until stronger westerly shear becomes established over the cyclone. Shear and cooler waters will induce weakening, and Gilma is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days or earlier. Dissipation is expected therafter. The official forecast follows the intensity consensus trend. Gilma is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is on the southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. This steering flow pattern is forecast to persist, so no change in track is anticipated. The NHC forecast is located between the HFIP HCCA model and the simple track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.9N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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