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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-09-15 10:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150838 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed center of circulation. An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT data should help us re-assess Gordon's maximum winds later this morning. Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down considerably. A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than 5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on days 3-5. The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast, trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5. Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-15 10:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.6, -44.8 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 16
2024-09-15 10:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 44.8W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 44.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and it could degenerate into a remnant low at any time during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics