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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-03 14:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 678 WTNT42 KNHC 031236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida, along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon. The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon. Key Messages: 1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for these areas. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in those areas beginning late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days, including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor products from their local National Weather Service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1230Z 25.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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