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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-09-13 16:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131438 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 While some west-northwesterly shear exists over the cyclone, a combination of Dvorak satellite estimates and improved structure on satellite imagery since earlier this morning has led to the depression being upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, based on consensus Dvorak estimates around that value. The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest (295/10 kt). While a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of Gordon is becoming more pronounced due to the possible retrogression of an upper low to its east-northeast, this appears to be only slowing the storm down. The track guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn westward by tonight and move slowly throughout much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, an amplifying shortwave trough to the north could cause Gordon to gradually turn northwestward, assuming the system can re-intensify. The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends. Gordon has some chance to intensify today before moving deeper into the moisture-starved environment across the tropical Atlantic, and some weakening is anticipated this weekend. While the shear isn't expected to be too hostile, any re-intensification during next week is expected to be slow, and there is a chance that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.8N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 20.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2024-09-13 16:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:37:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:37:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-09-13 16:36:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 131436 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics