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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-18 04:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO DZILAM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO DZILAM * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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