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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-08-06 04:31:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060231 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 HENRIETTE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS EVENING WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE GROWING NEAR THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED...WITH WHAT RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL PRESENT ON THE LATEST PASSES. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF THE STORM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW... HENRIETTE WILL BE HEADING INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND ACROSS COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELYING ON A BLEND OF THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE LATEST MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT HENRIETTE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE AFTER THAT TIME...CAUSING THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.5N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.4N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.6N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.6N 134.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.3N 136.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 17.9N 139.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 17.1N 144.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.0N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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