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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-08-04 22:58:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042058 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LOCATED A BIT SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS DUE TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR IF THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW HAS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THERE IS STILL A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STORM...DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 40 KT. THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST. HENRIETEE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7 KT. HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESSENED THIS CYCLE...WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.2N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 12.2N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 12.5N 129.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 13.1N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 13.9N 132.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 16.0N 139.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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