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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-08-05 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050230 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...VISIBLE AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CLOUD PATTERN DOES STILL SHOW SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT...WHICH IS ON THE LOW END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... INDUCED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 12.0N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 12.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 12.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 14.2N 133.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 136.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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