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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-08-05 10:58:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050858 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF HENRIETTE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0522Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS THAT SHOWED 40-KT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT WIND DATA. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL WOBBLES IN THE MOTION OF HENRIETTE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON A WESTWARD COURSE OF 275/06 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 135W-140W LONGITUDE. AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCING THIS WEAKNESS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS... THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 3-5 AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. HENRIETTE APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO AT LEAST A TYPICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 175 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING AND MOVING CLOSER TO HENRIETTE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD MORPH INTO AN OUTER RAIN BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY DIVERTED EQUATORIAL INFLOW TO BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THIS INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR...COUPLED WITH 28C SSTS...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD INITIATE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER TODAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...BUT IS BELOW THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH BRINGS HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST 90 KT IN 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 12.1N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 12.5N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 13.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 14.3N 132.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.1N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 17.0N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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