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Tropical Storm HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-08-05 16:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051434 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION AND BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT...A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. HENRIETTE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/4 KT. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING WELL WEST OF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND STAY ON THAT GENERAL HEADING DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF HENRIETTE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS HENRIETTE MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DURING THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO CROSS A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT WHEN THE CYCLONE TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND MOVES ALONG THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. THE COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IF HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. CONVERSELY...IF HENRIETTE IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.1N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.6N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 14.7N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.6N 134.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 16.9N 137.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 17.0N 146.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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