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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-26 22:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened. The cloud pattern has become better organized during the past several hours with banding features now more distinct and symmetric around the center. A recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds near 35 kt, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS also support a similar wind speed. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Hernan. Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next day or so while the environmental conditions remain favorable. Beyond that time, however, Hernan will be moving over cooler water and into an atmosphere of stronger shear and dry air. These expected hostile conditions should cause the storm to lose strength. The intensity guidance has not changed significantly, and this forecast is an update of the previous one. Hernan is moving northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwest side of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States. This steering pattern is expected to persist, and that should keep the system moving west-northwestward to northwestward at about the same speed for the next couple of days. After that time, a gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected when the weakening cyclone is steered by the lighter low-level flow. The models have shifted northward this cycle, and the official track forecast is adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 15.4N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 20.9N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 22.6N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1800Z 23.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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