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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 The cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved since the previous advisory with the low-level center now embedded within a developing central dense overcast feature. Satellite intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and T2.7/39 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Howard, the eighth named storm of the 2016 season and the eighth named storm during the past 30 days as well. The initial motion remains 295/10 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Howard is expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to become a shallow remnant low over much cooler water and be steered westward by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models and down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. Additional strengthening is forecast today and tonight while Howard remains over SSTs greater than 25.5 deg C. By 36-48 hours, the cyclone will be moving over sub-24 deg C water and into some modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. That combination of unfavorable conditions will induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond. The official intensity forecast is similar to previous forecast, and closely follows the SHIPS and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.1N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.8N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.1N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.2N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 22.7N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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