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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-01 16:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011443 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 Howard's convective structure has gradually been increasing in organization. The cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a long curved band, at the head of which is a clearing around the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak satellite classifications are T2.5/35 kt and T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend of these is used to arrive at the initial intensity estimate of 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09. Howard's primary steering mechanism is the western extension of a subtropical ridge located over the south-central United States, which is imparting a mostly westerly course. However, a mid- to upper-level low west of the cyclone is allowing for a greater northerly component of motion. This general movement with some increase in forward speed is likely during the next 2 days, after which time a turn toward the west is likely. This should occur when Howard weakens and becomes a shallower cyclone in the trade-wind flow. The official NHC track forecast is hardly unchanged from the previous one and is closest to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Ships model output shows some westerly shear over the cyclone, perhaps related to Howard's outrunning the upper-level anticyclone over it. Otherwise, large-scale conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for some additional intensification during the next 24 hours or so. By 36-48 hours, Howard should reach much cooler waters and enter an increasingly drier and more stable environment, all of which should lead to weakening. This should result in a fast rate of weakening, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical in 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus in the short term and then follows the LGEM during the weakening phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.7N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.9N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.0N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 22.9N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 22.9N 150.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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