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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-01 23:29:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012129 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 Howard's cloud pattern has become less organized since the last advisory. Although the cyclone has plenty of banding features, they are generally confined to eastern half of its circulation. The low-level center has also recently become exposed, possibly due to westerly shear. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate is kept at 45 kt, on the lower end of these estimates because of the cyclone's degraded appearance. The initial motion estimate is 295/11. A subtropical ridge north of Howard is primarily responsible for the cyclone's steering, but a mid- to upper-level low to the west of it has been imparting a greater northerly component of motion. This general motion with some slight increase in forward speed is likely for another couple of days, after which time a turn toward the west is expected. The turn should occur once Howard weakens and becomes a much shallower cyclone embedded in the trade-wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is only adjusted slightly north of the previous one and is quite close to the multi-model consensus. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently high to allow for some intensification during the next 12 hours or so, but westerly shear over Howard may temper that. Weakening should commence in about 24 hours, and this rate of weakening should soon become faster as the large-scale thermodynamic become increasingly hostile. Remnant low status is forecast in 48 hours, and dissipation is likely just after day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat reduced relative to the previous one and is a little lower than the multi- model consensus after 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.4N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.8N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 23.3N 146.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 23.4N 151.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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