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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-02 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 Visible imagery and a 01/2038 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass show that Howard's center of circulation has become exposed to the west of the cloud canopy. Additionally, the entire western half of the cyclone has become devoid of deep convective banding. It appears that modest westerly shear is impinging on the storm and undercutting the diffluent flow aloft. A blend of the Final-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours while Howard remains over SSTs greater than 26C. By the 24 hour period, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler sub-24 deg C water. Cooler SSTs and increasing southwesterly shear should induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, and a remnant low by day 3. After that time, the large-scale models show the remnant low degenerating into a trough of low pressure. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous forecast, but is lower than the IVCN intensity consensus. Satellite position estimates suggest that Howard is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 12 kt. Howard is expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion during the next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Through the remainder of the period, the cyclone is forecast to become a shallow remnant low and turn toward the west following the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and is hedged toward the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.7N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.0N 130.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 21.1N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 22.0N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 23.3N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 23.2N 152.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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