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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-08-27 16:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271458 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Harvey continues to meander over southeastern Texas, where it is producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding rainfall. NWS radars show that bands of deep convection continue to develop over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and train over portions of southeastern Texas, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Rainfall amounts greater than 20-25 inches have already been reported and flash flood emergencies and warnings have been issued by local National Weather Service offices for a large portion of southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days, and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center is now forecasting isolated storm total amounts of 50 inches. These historic rainfall amounts will exacerbate the already dire and life-threatening situation. Surface observations of winds 30-35 kt within a band of convection over the western Gulf of Mexico and along the coast of Texas support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The latest track guidance show Harvey moving slowly southeastward for the next 24 to 36 hours and the center is likely to move very close to the coast, or even offshore, between 24-48 hours. After that time, Harvey is expected to begin a northward motion which should take it inland over eastern Texas later in the period. Since a large portion of the circulation is expected to remain over water during the next several days, Harvey is maintained as a tropical storm through 72 hours. However, the strongest winds are likely to occur over the Gulf waters. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches, through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 29.0N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 28.4N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z 28.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 29/1200Z 28.2N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 30/1200Z 29.3N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1200Z 30.9N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 32.2N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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