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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-08-28 10:57:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Harvey is producing intense convection in bands over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. This is resulting in the continuation of very heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. There have been reports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the Greater Houston area. With the additional rains that are expected over the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for the area. The initial intensity estimate remains 35 kt, based on the assumption that winds of this strength are occuring in some of the stronger bands. Since Harvey is forecast to be back over water just offshore of the coast during the next couple of days, there is some potential for restrengthening. Significant strengthening is not anticipated, however, due to the system's lack of an inner core and strong southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over Texas. Radar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving slowly southeastward, or 130/3 kt. A mid-level trough dropping into the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east and northeast and move back over land in a couple of days. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus. Although the tropical storm warning may need to be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts later this morning, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to be the primary threats. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches expected in south-central Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 28.6N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 28.4N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 29/0600Z 28.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/1800Z 28.3N 95.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/0600Z 29.0N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 31/0600Z 31.0N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0600Z 33.4N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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