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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-08-28 16:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Radar and surface data indicate that the center of Harvey is near or just off the Texas coast south of Matagorda. The system currently has only disorganized convection near the center, with the primary deep convection in a band well to the east of the center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a minimum central pressure around 997 mb and the assumption that stronger winds aloft seen on the Houston WSR-88D are mixing down to the surface in the stronger bands. While the convection is currently poorly organized, very heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding continue over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. There have been reports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the Greater Houston area. With the additional rains that are expected over the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for the area. Due to the current structure, a dry slot seen in water vapor imagery over the southern part of the circulation, and the lack of intensification shown by the intensity guidance, only slight strengthening is anticipated while Harvey remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous one. Radar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving slowly southeastward, or 125/4 kt. A mid-level trough dropping into the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east and northeast and move back over land in a couple of days. There is little change to the forecast track from the previous advisory, and the new track remains close to the dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches expected in south-central Louisiana and 5 to 10 inches in southeastern Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. 3. While Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been extended eastward to the coast of Louisiana, the impacts of winds and storm surge are expected to be secondary compared to that of the rains. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 28.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 28.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.1N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 28.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.4N 94.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 31.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 35.5N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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