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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 36
2017-08-29 11:00:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290900 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Heavy rains continue to spread over the Houston area and other locations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event. Rainfall totals exceeding 40 inches have been observed at several locations in the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas. Storm totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for the area. The center of Harvey is moving slowly over the waters of the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and there continues to be essentially no deep convection near that center. The current intensity is estimated to still be 40 kt based on surface observations from buoys and land stations. Given the lack of central convection and strong south-southwesterly shear over the system, significant restrengthening is not anticipated before the center crosses the coast again within 36 hours or so. Gradual weakening will occur after landfall. Harvey has turned from an east-southeastward to an eastward heading and the initial motion is now about 100/3 kt. The storm should turn northeastward to north-northeastward over the next couple of days as a ridge to the northwest of the system weakens and Harvey is steered around the western side of a ridge to the east. Some further eastward adjustments to the official track forecast were made, following the latest model consensus forecasts. However, it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track since the main threat from Harvey, heavy rain and flooding, can and will occur well removed from the track of the center. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 7 to 13 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches are expected in south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 28.1N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 28.3N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 28.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 29.9N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 31.1N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 33.7N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z 37.5N 83.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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