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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-08-29 16:59:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291459 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Heavy rains continue to spread over the Houston area and other locations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event. Rainfall totals of nearly 50 inches have been observed at several locations in the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas. Storm totals could reach higher amounts in some locations, which would be historic for the area. Harvey consists of a vigorous circulation of low clouds with some patches of deep convection well to the north of the center and a cyclonically curved convective band in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is kept at 40 kt until we have a more recent estimate when the reconnaissance plane checks the area this afternoon. Strong shear prevails over the cyclone, so no significant change in intensity is anticipated before landfall. A gradual weakening is forecast once the circulation moves inland. The circulation is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 4 kt. Harvey is expected to be steered to the northeast with an increase in forward speed by the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a trough. Most of the guidance is consistent with this solution, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Given that the guidance is tightly clustered the confidence in the track forecast is high. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 28.4N 94.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 28.8N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 29.8N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 30.8N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 34.5N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 36.5N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z 38.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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