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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 42
2017-08-30 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302035 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Harvey is gradually weakening as the center moves farther inland, with the winds near the center diminishing and the central pressure rising to near 998 mb. However, scatterometer data and surface observations indicate a band of 30-35 kt winds over the Gulf of Mexico well to the southeast of the center, and this is the basis for keeping Harvey a tropical storm. The cyclone should weaken to a depression in less than 12 hours, and continued slow weakening is anticipated until the cyclone dissipates completely between 72-96 h. It should be noted that the forecast weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along Harvey's path, although the system's faster motion will keep subsequent rainfall totals well below what occurred over southeastern Texas. Harvey is wobbling back and forth around an overall motion of 020/7. The cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a low- to mid-tropospheric level ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should steer it north-northeastward and then northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next 72-96 h until the system dissipates. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life- threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 30.8N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0600Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1800Z 33.5N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0600Z 35.1N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 36.4N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1800Z 38.6N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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