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Tropical Storm Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-12 22:52:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122052 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Dry air and northeasterly shear have been steadily eroding the deep convection around the center of Henriette today. The low-level center is exposed and the only deep convection remaining is confined to the western semicircle. Despite the degradation in the satellite presentation, a recent ASCAT pass showed that tropical- storm- force winds are still occuring in a small area near the center of the compact storm. Based on this data, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is 290/11 kt. This motion will continue through tonight while the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA which lies on the southern side of the other consensus aids. Dry, stable air and ongoing shear should limit convection over the cyclone while the circulation remains over marginally favorable SSTs. This lack of convection should cause a weakening trend to commence very soon. By Tuesday, Henriette will move over SSTs below 26 C, which, combined with the other unfavorable environmental conditions, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday. The official forecast calls for a little faster weakening of Henriette than the previous one, and is near the various multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 20.9N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 21.6N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 22.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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