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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280809 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, microwave imagery from a WindSat overpass showed no indication of a well-defined center near Hernan's estimated location. However,there was a hint of a small vortex well to the northeast. Subsequent ASCAT data showed that the well-defined vortex had moved near the Islas Marias and had winds of 30-35 kt. Data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper showed a continuous maximum in lightning near Hernan's center from yesterday afternoon through the new estimated position. Confidence is therefore fairly high that Hernan has persisted as a tropical cyclone, at least through 0400 UTC this morning. Due to the northeastward relocation of the center, the track forecast has been significantly changed in that direction and now shows Hernan entering the Gulf of California later today. Hernan appears to be quickly moving around a larger low-level cyclonic gyre centered just west of the coast of Mexico. The gyre could steer Hernan or its remnants over the Baja California peninsula later today or early Saturday, but it is not forecast to have sustained tropical-storm-force winds at that time. All of the global models show Hernan opening into a trough within about 24 hours, but it could happen much sooner than that- possibly before Hernan even reaches the Gulf of California. If Hernan does make it to the coast as a depression or remnant low, it could produce some gusty winds before it quickly weakens and dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 22.7N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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