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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-07-29 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290845 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 The deep convection associated with Hilary has lost some organization since the last advisory, with little or no convection currently occurring over the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates range from 45-65 kt, and recent ASCAT data showed winds of at best 50 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is nudged down to a possibly generous 55 kt. The system will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment, which should cause a steady weakening. By 48 hours, Hilary is forecast to become a remnant low over 23C waters, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate completely after 96 hr. The initial motion is now 305/9. As mentioned in the previous advisory, a mid-level ridge extending from southern California west-southwestward across the eastern Pacific should steer Hilary on this general path for the next couple of days. The forecast then gets more complicated due to potential interaction with TS Irwin. The guidance is in less good agreement than earlier, with the possibilities ranging from the Canadian model merging the two systems in 72 h to the ECMWF showing them dissipating in close proximity to one another near 120 h. The track guidance suggests a west-northwestward to westward turn for Hilary as Irwin or its remnants move around the eastern and northern sides, and the official forecast follows this scenario. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track for the first 36-48 h and then is nudged to the south thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.7N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.7N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.9N 124.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.1N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 24.9N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 25.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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