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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-07-29 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 The inner-core of Hilary continues to feature deep convection, despite analyzed SSTs below 24 deg C. At times during the day today, an eye or eye-like feature has even been observed in IR and visible imagery. That said, an ASCAT-B pass at 1722 UTC revealed maximum winds of only 46 kt in the NW quadrant. Based on the ASCAT data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, suggesting that Hilary has finally begun to weaken. The intensity forecast is unchanged and steady weakening is expected until the cyclone becomes a remnant low, now shown to occur in about 36 hours. All of the global models forecast that Hilary will dissipate within 4 days, in close proximity to Irwin. The initial motion is 310/11 kt, and Hilary has been slipping a little to the right of the forecast track today, perhaps in part due to the fact that it has maintained a fairly coherent deep circulation. A turn back toward the west-northwest is still expected within the next 12-24 hours as the tropical storm weakens and interacts with the circulation of Irwin. The various global models still differ in the details of that interaction, but generally agree that both systems will be weak and one or the other will probably dissipate before a merger can occur. Overall, the NHC track has been shifted slightly to the right to account for the initial motion, but is otherwise unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.3N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.3N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 25.2N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 25.5N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z 25.5N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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