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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 36
2017-07-30 10:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300850 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Deep convection associated with Hilary has continued to decrease in coverage overnight, with only a small area of cold cloud tops remaining to the southeast of the center. An average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMMS yields an initial intensity estimate of 40 kt. Hilary will be moving into a more stable airmass over SSTs below 22C very soon, which should result in steady weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours. Deep convection is also expected to dissipate later today, and Hilary is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low within 24 hours. Recent satellite fixes show that Hilary has turned west- northwestward or 300/12 kt. A west-northwestward motion between a low- to mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Irwin to the south should continue over the next couple of days. The latest global models suggest that cyclone is likely to dissipate before any merger with Irwin or its remnants takes place. The NHC track forecast is along the southern portion of the tightly clustered guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.5N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 25.4N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 26.3N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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