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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-23 04:53:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230253 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 A persistent area of convection has developed near and over the center of the depression since the last advisory. In addition, a recent SSMI/S overpass shows the low- to mid-level convective banding has become better defined. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, the upper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Hilary. Hilary should remain in an environment of light vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 4 days, and thus it should at least steadily, if not rapidly, strengthen. After day 4, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into stronger shear, and the new intensity forecast shows weakening at that time. The new intensity forecast lies below that of the SHIPS model and the HCCA corrected consensus, and it is possible an upward adjustment of the forecast intensities may be required in later advisories. The initial motion is 300/12. The main steering feature should be a mid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the Pacific, and this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period. Near the end of the period, there is a possibility of interaction with Tropical Depression Ten-E, although present indications in the large-scale guidance are this should have a minimal impact on Hilary's track. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous track, and it lies near the various consensus models. The new track keeps the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 11.5N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 12.1N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 13.0N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 13.7N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.4N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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