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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-09-16 16:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161453 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT INGRID MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT INGRID WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED IN MEXICO WAS FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO THAT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT WITH A GUST TO 56 KT AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRE MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INGRID HAS NOT YET MADE THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN...AS THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD SOON...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST TO BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INGRID WEAKENS OVER LAND TONIGHT. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0000Z 23.4N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 22.8N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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