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Tropical Storm INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-09-13 22:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 132042 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 8 19 44 NA TROP DEPRESSION 7 9 11 23 32 27 NA TROPICAL STORM 90 78 66 56 41 22 NA HURRICANE 2 12 20 13 8 7 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 18 12 7 6 NA HUR CAT 2 X X 2 1 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 35KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 8(16) 3(19) X(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PESCO MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 13(30) 3(33) X(33) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 10(30) 3(33) X(33) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) VERACRUZ MX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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