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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-05 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050836 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 There has been little change in the convective organization of Ivette overnight. The low-level center remains exposed to the west and northwest of a loosely curved band of thunderstorms, due to westerly to northwesterly shear. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are all near T3.0, which yields an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Although the shear is not very strong, it appears the small size of the cyclone and perhaps some nearby dry mid-level air in combination with the shear have prevented intensification during the past day. The GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the shear will decrease during the next 24 hours or so, but the ECMWF model shows a continuation of some upper-level westerlies over Ivette. Because of these differences in the expected upper-level winds, the NHC intensity forecast is more uncertain than normal. The updated intensity forecast calls for some slight strengthening during the next 36 hours, but it is lower than the previous advisory, and it is closest to the IVCN intensity consensus. After 48 h, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs should cause a fairly rapid spin down of Ivette, and the cyclone is likely to become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days. The tropical storm is moving westward or 275/12 kt. Ivette should turn west-northwestward in 12 to 24 hours as a deepening mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the Hawaiian Islands weakens the western portion of the subtropical ridge. After day 3, Ivette is forecast to turn back westward after it weakens and is steered by the low-level easterly trades. There remains high confidence in the track forecast since the dynamical models continue to be in good agreement. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.9N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.2N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.4N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 17.2N 136.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 18.5N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.0N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 18.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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